Верхнее меню

INFLUENCE OF SUBSTITUTIONAL MIGRATION ON AGEING OF POPULATION OF MOSCOW AND ST. PETERSBURG



G.L. Safarova
Ye.M. Ilyin
N.G. Kosolapenko
safarova@emi.nw.ru
emil@emi.nw.ru
nina_k@emi.nw.ru
leading researcher, St. Petersburg Institute of Economics and Mathematics of the Russian Academy of Science, Doctor of Biology
leading researcher, St. Petersburg Institute of Economics and Mathematics of the Russian Academy of Science, PhD in Physics and Mathematics
researcher, St. Petersburg Institute of Economics and Mathematics of the Russian Academy of Science
Saint-Petersburg
Saint-Petersburg
Saint-Petersburg

Keywords:

  • ageing of population
  • working-age population
  • substitutional migration
  • age structure of population
  • Leslie model
  • We carry out numerical modelling to assess the size of migration flows contributing to long-term stable population dynamics for Moscow and St. Petersburg. The algorithm applied is based on the classical Leslie model taking migration into account. We analyze stabilization regimes and the age structure of stationary population. We demonstrate that the "youth" migration policy is more effective since it leads to age structures with greater proportion of children and smaller one of the elderly. We consider similarity between the basic population and stationary population corresponding to the scenarios in question.